New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi overwhelmingly continues to be the first choice of people to lead the country during the 17th Lok Sabha, the polls for which ended on Sunday evening. The BJP and NDA would in all likelihood surge back to power, just as attested to by the various exit poll results.

MyNation online election survey launched to gauge the mood of the nation during the Lok Sabha elections 2019 has thrown up results that point to several trends in the political behaviour of the voters.

PM Modi leads by miles

To the query about who is the first choice as the next PM and who could be the challengers, those who took MyNation survey online overwhelmingly reposed their faith in Narendra Modi. A whopping 92.15 % of respondents gave PM Modi their thumbs up.

Also read: Exit polls predict Narendra Modi sweep again, Bengal holds a surprise

Congress chief Rahul Gandhi remains an extremely distant second, at just 2.45%. Respondents drubbed the idea of a third front government, as they pegged TMC chief and West Bengal Mamata Banerjee chief minister Mamata Banerjee to just 0.3%.

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BJP surging back to power

An overwhelming number of respondents chose the BJP government once again. Of the total respondents, 73.45% gave a full majority to the saffron party, while those who believed that NDA would form the government but BJP would not post past the half-way mark stood at a minuscule minority of 22.75%.

Those rooting for a UPA government or the third front stood at a dismal 2.55% and 1.25%, respectively.

Seat-wise preference: NDA Vs UPA

Two thirds or 73.75% respondents believe that BJP alone would be able to get the numbers to form the government, pegging BJP at over 272 and NDA at over 320 seats in Lok Sabha.

The second likely scenario favoured by about 20% of the respondents still hopes to see an NDA government with over 272 seats but sees the BJP getting past 200 but less than the magic half-way mark.
Those who see the NDA and BJP falling behind the 272 mark were just 4.45% (BJP less than 200 and NDA less than
272) and 0.5% said they saw BJP at less than 100 and NDA less than 200. 
On the contrary, the Congress and the UPA are not expected to post any sort of comeback in 2019 polls. Just 1% of the respondents think that Congress could get 200 plus seats and UPA could go past 272 seats. Meanwhile, the majority of respondents, 46.65%, can see UPA getting less than 100 seats in Lok Sabha elections.
But, the Congress is also expected to somewhat better its tally than 2014’s 44 seats. Only 12.8% of respondents believed that Congress could slip to lower than 44 seats and UPA short of 100.  
Those giving Congress 44-100 seats and UPA 100-200 stood at 19.1% and 16.25% gave the UPA 150-200 seats. This again attests to the fact that Congress is expected to better its numbers this time around.

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If not Modi, who?

In a scenario where the NDA and the BJP failed to get a majority and form the next government, the first choice as prime minister of the respondents who took MyNation survey is BSP chief Mayawati.
Even in such a political situation, Congress chief Rahul Gandhi fails to cut it with the electorate. While 29.05% of our respondents went for Gandhi as the likely PM, 32.75% preferred Mayawati.
While TMC chief Mamata Banerjee might have tried hard to post herself as the prime challenger to PM Modi and thus the first choice to lead a non-BJP non-Congress formation or one that was supported by the Congress from outside, but she seems to have failed too.
Only 14.6% of the respondents chose Banerjee as their PM. Perhaps, Andhra chief minister and TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu fared better than Banerjee, trailing Rahul Gandhi closely as the choice of 23.35% respondents as PM.

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Swinging factors of 2019 elections

The biggest issues that swung the voters towards the BJP seem to be the Surgical Strikes and Air Strikes and PM Modi’s flagship welfare schemes for the poor.
On the contrary, demonetisation failed to convince the electorate against the BJP, nor did the Rafale bogey stick to the prime minister.  

Put together 87.40% of the respondents believed that Surgical Strikes and schemes such as Ujjwala, Ayushman Bharat, Kisan Samman Nidhi etc were the main issues this election. (Surgical strikes - 40.65% and welfare schemes 46.75%).

Only 9.15% people thought demonetisation as one of the central issues, while Rafale scored even less on the consciousness of the voters at just 3.4%.

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Methodology of survey

Nearly 1000 people participated in MyNation election survey 2019. They were asked to respond to six questions, with four options each.
The survey was taken mostly by the youth. The majority of respondents, 77.6%, were in the age group of 18-45 years. Those between 18 and 30 years of age were 32.1% of the total, while 45.5% were between 31 and 45 years of age. Those in the age bracket of 46-60 years were 16.2% and those above 60 years were 6.2%.

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