Economic Survey tabled by Nirmala Sitharaman points to a V-shaped recovery
First Published Jan 29, 2021, 5:49 PM IST
The Economic Survey 2020-21, tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament, has observed that in spite of an unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic and consequential challenges, the industrial and infrastructure sectors of Indian economy are on a fast V-shaped recovery path.
India's real GDP to record a growth of 11 per cent in 2021-22 and nominal GDP by 15.4 per cent -- the highest since independence.
The Survey notes that the V-shaped economic recovery is supported by the initiation of a mega vaccination drive with hopes of a robust recovery in the services sector and prospects for robust growth in consumption and investment.
As anticipated, while the lockdown resulted in a 23.9 per cent contraction in GDP in Q1, the recovery has been a V-shaped one as seen in the 7.5 per cent decline in Q2 and the recovery across all key economic indicators.
Starting July, a resilient V-shaped recovery is underway, as demonstrated by the recovery in GDP growth in Q2 after the sharp decline in Q1.
The survey notes that exports are expected to decline by 5.8 per cent and imports by 11.3 per cent in the second half of the year. India is expected to have a Current Account Surplus of 2 per cent of GDP in FY21, a historic high after 17 years.
The survey says that India's mature policy response to this "once-in-a-century" crisis provides important lessons for democracies to avoid myopic policymaking and demonstrates the significant benefits of focusing on long-term gains.
The Survey says India's GDP is estimated to contract by 7.7 per cent in FY2020-21, composed of a sharp 15.7 per cent decline in the first half and a modest 0.1 per cent fall in the second half.
Sector-wise, agriculture has remained the silver lining while contact-based services, manufacturing, construction were hit hardest, and have been recovering steadily.
This strong V-shaped recovery of economic activity is further confirmed in the IIP data.
According to the Economic Survey, the recovery is expected to be just the beginning of a strong era of economic growth of India.