Going into the general elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi may have accomplished more in foreign policy than he had ever hoped for. A seasoned but provincial politician, unused to the byzantine and exclusivist ways of Lutyens’ Delhi, he took to the skies very early in the day to get the acceptance he needed from the world. 

The first citadel he stormed was the erstwhile visa denying United States. This was due to the handiwork of the earlier government, that had painted Modi in lurid colours. 

At the end of five years – an unprecedented camaraderie, prestige, access, warmth, cooperation and support globally, is more than evident.

International honours and encomiums are pouring in, even as Lutyens’ Delhi, hoping to see the back of Modi soon, remains partially unconquered. 

But, in effect, the yesterday men and women of the Indian capital have been both out-flanked and out-classed. This even as they have been joined by second rung actors and writers to call for Modi and the BJP to be voted out. 

If there is an ideological battle sought to be fought here, it is a losing one. Modi has not only won the hearts and the intellectual approval of the majority of his countrymen, but has also earned a high place for India in the world. 

It is on his watch that an Axis of Power for the 21st century is emerging. It is reinforced by intelligence and military cooperation between the most original, inventive, courageous, and intelligent people on earth.  It has taken shape and form over the last five years because India now has a decisive and visionary leadership. One that is deemed likely to consolidate its  presence domestically, and be a force globally in the decisive decade ahead. 

An axis is a rotational device, in the sense that it is an imaginary line about which a body or bodies rotate. It is this rotational quality that is relevant and deserving of focus in 2019.

The  cooperation of this Axis is no longer akin to the first rays of dawn. It has quietly overtaken and largely bypassed the red-tape ridden UNSC, NATO, the G7 and G20, BRICS, the APEC, OPEC and others, particularly Chinese led fora, such as Belt & Road. It has succeeded by being reasonably informal, trilateral, and definite in its sinewiness. 

It is not dawn but early morning for it, even as the rest of the world - friends, rivals,  frenemies and foes, are busy coming to terms with it. 

The Axis of global Power, in 2019, soon to enter the 3rd decade of the 21st century, is, first, America. It is an America that is far from finished, even if its global policeman role has been modified because it is unwilling to pay all the bills associated.  It is a formidable military power, many times bigger than China, and has the mightiest economy in the world.

Then, Israel, tiny, a military juggernaut, unswervingly reinforced by America. It is the dominant middle-eastern power. Supremely efficient and vigilant, Israel has, during the Trump presidency and under the leadership of  Benjamin Netanyahu, taken over Jerusalem as her capital, annexed the Golan Heights overlooking Syria, and is busy likewise on the West Bank. Israel also has the tacit approval of its most influential neighbours.  

Lastly, there is responsible India, waking up to its immense potential at last. India’s time has come as a chosen counterbalance to an imperial China. It is coincidentally now the fastest growing major economy in the world, has a raucous but functioning democracy, and is home to nearly 1.5 billion people, most of whom are young. 

A slowing and ageing China, a dictatorship, that has emerged into the top ranks from the Deng Xiao Ping led 1980s, will be economically bracketed by democratic America and India, by 2030. 

The three will form the premier triumvirate, but what counts is the tacit decision made with regard to the eventual stakes. Two, of this troika emerging towards the apex, are now allied to check the third’s bid for world domination. 

This emerging reality is already driving other combinations back to the drawing board to work out new methods of leverage and relevance for themselves. 

World domination, very much in President-for-life Xi Jinping’s scheme of things, is an ambition that China may never realize. But Xi Jinping is not convinced. He is relatively young. China is counting on a change of guard in the White House at least once every eight years to see it through. He ignores the continuity of policy because of the sharp differences between the Democrats and the Republicans on emphasis, if not ideology.

China thinks it can win if it is able to chip away at and degrade this Axis of Power. It does not want to precipitate a confrontation, not even with tiny Taiwan, that it has long claimed. The most likely bid therefore will be via its proxies, financially beholden allies, and bankrupt client states on every continent. 

Today it could be Pakistan –practically a vassal, Saudi Arabia or Iran from which countries it buys huge quantities of oil. Tomorrow, again, The Maldives in the Indian Ocean, or The Seychelles. 

There is Italy in the EU, and the financial state of Luxembourg, that have both signed up for the Belt and Road initiative. Russia in the UNSC is drawn in by the same token. 

There are several countries highly indebted to China in resource-rich Africa. Others in the immediate neighbourhood of India, in SAARC and BIMSTEC have also allowed Chinese mega-projects on their soil on tough, if not ruinous terms. 

China’s own increasingly bizarre manoeuvres will play a part in getting it ahead or pushing it back. And its financial resources though vast are not infinite. Besides deal after deal with insolvent countries only helps them acquire assets that can produce results only in the long term, if there is no political upheaval or nationalization of those assets. 

In the South China Sea region, it could possibly use North Korea, but bear in mind that Trump has directly engaged Kim.  An effort is also on to dominate the Arabian Sea and Gulf from Gwadar.                                            

Meanwhile, others, Russia, Britain, France in the UNSC, Germany and Japan outside it, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Australia, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, are forming up behind this benevolent Axis. This is for their own sense of self- preservation of course. 

The ineffectiveness of the UN, the difficulties of the EU and so on, underscore the importance of  bilateral ties in 2019. Modi has been quick to recognize this and act upon it. 

This formation, the Axis, has been gestating for some time, but the problem was that India had consistently failed to step up to the plate. This changed when the Modi government demonstrated a determination to follow through on its geopolitical beliefs. It stood up to China at Doklam and attacked cross-border terrorists in both nuclear Pakistan and Myanmar. It has been regionally proactive in Afghanistan without going military. It has been supportive of Iran’s connectivity/alternative to Gwadar at Chabahar. Its  relations with  Saudi Arabia and the UAE are better than ever before, probably due to the emerging Axis, as much as its own efforts. 

In terms of its workings, Israel has demonstrated its consistency in ways overt and covert in India’s dealing with Pakistani terrorism. And in defence/agricultural science cooperation. 

America is not allowing anyone else, including China, to drive a wedge into its military cooperation with India. If there was a balance required to secure the future of the globe and its future via space, this is apparently it. 

India and China may account for nearly 40% of humanity between them, but Nehru was wrong. These two countries were never meant to be brothers. They were not destined to be more than trade partners. This is clear now. 

The Axis however is the geopolitical future. It is bound to grow from strength to strength in Modi’s second term.