It's one year since AIADMK asked the governor to disqualify 18 MLAs who supported rebel faction led by TTV Dhinakaran in Tamil Nadu. But even after one year, it's status-quo and AIADMK is no more pushing for the disqualification, thanks to decreasing levels of confidence.

On September 18 last year, S Rajendran, the AIADMK whip had sought the disqualification of 18 MLAs as they had expressed that they do not have confidence in Chief Minister K Palaniswami's government. The rebels were led by TTV Dhinakaran, who was supported by Sasikala, after the death of late Chief Minister Jayalalithaa.

Speaker P Dhanpal had disqualified the 18 MLAs, but the rebel MLAs had filed a case in the court to nullify the speaker's order of their disqualification. The case was heard by two-judge bench. Chief Justice Indira Banerjee had upheld the speaker's decision of disqualifying MLAs, whereas, Justice M Sundar quashed the speaker's decision. Thus the case was referred to the third judge for a proper decision and the court ordered the continuation of 18 MLAs in the government till the verdict is pronounced.

The fact that Sasikala is jailed in the disproportionate assets case seems to be a major factor adding to the confidence of AIADMK leaders, who think they can survive without the support of these 18 MLAs.

But now, after one year of the incident, TTV Dhinakaran has formed his own party Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) and these 18 rebel leaders, though in AIADMK are extending external support to Dhinakaran. However analysts are of the opinion that AIADMK's confidence level has decreased and hence the leaders are no more asking for disqualification of these MLAs as this might prove costly to them if the demand is met.

In case the verdict is pronounced and 18 MLAs are disqualified, this will lead to by-election in those 18 constituencies. If AIADMK loses these 18 seats and either TTV Dhinakaran or DMK presses for no confidence motion, it will be difficult for AIADMK to prove its majority.

The total strength of Tamil Nadu Assembly is 234, but two seats are vacant in Thiruvarur and Thiruparankundram, making the current strength 232.

With disqualification of 18 MLAs, the strength of the house is at 214 (minus 18 from 232-including the speaker), thus, making 108 as the magical number needed for simple majority. Meanwhile, Palaniswami claims he has the support of 116 members.

Developments in Tamil Nadu including exhibition of strength by TTV Dhinakaran, after forming the party, and DMK's MK Stalin turning chief of the party, may not be a good sign for AIADMK.